Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Michigan Doesn't Matter

Looking at a map, it's hard to notice Michigan with all the Great Lakes around it. Well, with apologies to all the good folks who live up there, the political reality is that the Great Lake State's primaries really don't make a big difference. Iowa was huge. New Hampshire was huge. South Carolina will be huge. But tomorrow's headlines should read, "Romney won... big deal."

Here's why:

-Historically, a candidate must win 2 out of these 3: Iowa (the first caucus), New Hampshire (first in the nation primary), and South Carolina (first in the South primary). Regardless of how much Michigan tried, they can't change this reality.
-No one, except Romney, was even in Michigan for the results! When the candidates don't stick around to celebrate with you, you don't matter much.
-The Dems boycotted Michigan. They were all at a debate in Nevada. Thus, the media attention was split.

What lies ahead?

I predict this won't help Romney at all. From now until Saturday, all eyes are on South Carolina, and most South Carolinians are looking at either Huckabee or McCain. The South Carolina GOP is split and has been so for awhile. On one side you've got social conservatives who voted for Bush in 2000, Bob Peeler in 2002, and David Beasley in 2004. On the other side you've got fiscal conservatives who voted for McCain in 2000 and Mark Sanford and Lindsey Graham in 2002. Sanford has been less-than-spectacular to say the least, and Graham... don't get me started!

So the Huckabee/McCain showdown here is a mini Civil War of sorts! And just to add fuel to the fire, take a little refresher course on Ol' Man McCain's track record.

Keep your eyes on the Palmetto state because Saturday is sure to be exciting!

1 comment:

Chris said...

I also think it is quite a telling thing to observe the choice of one of the most liberal states in the country. NH used to be trustworthy for being fairly down the middle, but it's definitely one to be in the blue column.

So, what's the liberal pick in this one?